Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2017

Economy forecast to grow 4.5 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent in 2018

Read our latest assessment of the Irish and euro area economies in our latest Quarterly Bulletin.

Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2017 was published on 28 July 2017.

Quarterly Bulletin - Q3 2017 | pdf 4223 KB

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Read the QB3 2017 Forecast Summary Table.

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Read the full Comment for Quarterly Bulletin No.3 2017.

Tá leagan Gaeilge den Tráchtaireacht ar fáil anseo.

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The Irish economy continues to grow at a strong pace with GDP forecast to increase by 4.5 per cent this year. Growth continues to be driven by the strength of activity on the domestic side of the economy. Looking ahead, the outlook is favourable although downside risks remain in relation to external factors such as Brexit.

Read the full chapter: The Irish Economy.

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Private sector debt as a proportion of GDP increased by 7.6 percentage points over Q4 2016.  The increase in private sector debt is predominantly due to an increase in the stock of non-financial corporations’ loans, whilst household debt decreased over the period. Financial indicators for the household sector have continued to be strong over recent months, which has resulted in an improvement in debt sustainability metrics. Irish households reduced debt as a proportion of disposable income more than any country in the European Union (EU) over the past year. 

Read the full chapter: Financing Developments in the Irish Economy.

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This article looks at the impact that recent monetary policy measures has had on central banks’ own balance sheets and how this has led to an increase in financial risk exposures for central banks, particularly the risk of an interest rate mismatch. The Central Bank of Ireland performed an analysis of the financial risk exposures on its own balance sheet and set aside a provision in its 2016 Annual Accounts to mitigate against these risks.

The ECB's on-going non-standard monetary policy measures have let to changes in the composition and size of euro area national central banks' (NCBs) balance sheets.  These changes have increased and broadened the financial risk exposures of central banks, and led to a substantial increase in potential interest rate mismatch risk.  Nonetheless, the Treaty mandates the Eurosystem to implement monetary policy measures to achieve price stability, even if it results in losses for the Eurosystem or individual NCBS. 

Read the full signed article: Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and the Balance Sheets of Eurosystem Central Banks.

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This article examines the liquidity and risk management practices of large Irish-domiciled bond, mixed and money market funds. The 2008 crisis highlights the role of the funds sector as a transmission channel for systemic risk. The article finds some evidence that regulation has reduced market liquidity. Large funds generally consist of institutional not retail investors, and offer daily redemptions. Funds may use liquidity management tools to manage the cost of large redemptions and liquidity.

Read the full signed article: Liquidity & Risk Management: Results of a Survey of Large Irish-Domiciled Funds.

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The article highlights expanded Bank of International Settlements (BIS) consolidated banking data and how it provides a deeper understanding of the exposures of Irish headquartered banks. It provides a breakdown of data not previously published by the Central Bank of Ireland, including new information on trends in foreign claims by Irish headquartered banks and international claims on Ireland. A network analysis of the exposures of banking sectors in BIS reporting countries on vulnerable EU states and sovereigns is also presented.

Read the full signed article: Consolidated Banking Data: Introducing Enhanced Statistics for Ireland.

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Read the full Statistical Appendix.

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