The Central Bank’s approach to the use of the CCyB takes a broad perspective on systemic risk. As such, each review of the CCyB draws on a wide range of information. This approach is in line with that recommended by the ESRB (ESRB, 2014). The assessment of macro-financial conditions is informed by both quantitative and qualitative information across a number of areas including credit developments, the macro economy, real estate and the condition of the banking sector, as well as broader global cyclical conditions, given Ireland’s open economy.
These elements have now been supplemented through the development of the macroprudential stress testing framework. This provides a tool which can be used to inform the setting of the CCyB rate applicable to prevailing macro-financial conditions. The approach to using the stress testing model to inform the review of the CCyB rate on an ongoing basis is through the evolution of the input scenarios. Changes in the trajectory for the economy can be captured through cyclical developments linked to a baseline scenario, while the severity of the adverse scenario would reflect the risk environment (for example greater house price falls in periods of increasingly stretched valuations). While it is not anticipated that the stress testing approach would be implemented for each quarterly review, it would be run periodically (e.g. annually, or potentially when a material change to the outlook has occurred) to act as an additional input for the Central Bank’s policy stance for the CCyB.
Overall, there is no mechanical link between any specific indicator or tool and the CCyB rate set. Rather the underlying inputs inform policymaker judgement.
Policymaker judgement remains paramount and will ultimately determine the appropriate CCyB policy stance. See the CCyB Addendum to the Central Bank’s Macroprudential Capital Framework for more information.